Wide World of Dean Series, Part VI: The Dean’s Global Outlook

October 7th, 2009 at 9:24 am Posted by The Dean
Dear Students

wideworldofdean-300x25051The Wide World of Dean Series has taken a look at a greener China, the natural gas market in South America, the European and Canadian economies and the global market for coal. Especially with the cautious optimism associated with the global economy, The Dean wants to focus on what’s been going on and where that puts investors in the American markets.

Oil prices have been rising and The Dean, as well as others, believe this is due to expectations for demand in a global economy which seems to be improving. On Tuesday, the majority of global stock markets saw gains, with the Dow moving up 1.4%—its greatest since August 21st. And reports from Wednesday trading in Asian markets could certainly mean further advances in the American markets.

Bloomberg reports that gold prices have reached a record of $1,049.70 an ounce and expect the dollar to be remain weak as inflation and interest rates are expected to rise. Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Taback & Co. suggests that “gold can move considerably higher from here,” while Deutshe Bank AG estimated on the first of this month that could could top $1,100 in 2010.

The dollar has fallen and hopefully it has seen its low point, with even the Australian dollar moving to a 14 month high in comparison. In London, the dollar is believed to have fallen because Arab states and other countries are debating an end to the connection between US currency and oil pricing.

The Dean sees potential because growth can come from a number of places depending on the industries and market conditions. The World Economic Outlook (WEO), as predicted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), sees the global economy growing by 3.1% in 2010, which is 0.6% higher than previous estimates.

The IMF and World Bank met early Wednesday across the globe and suggest that the global recession “is ending.” The IMF has lowered its estimate of losses from the economic crisis to $3.4 trillion, which is $600 billion lower than predicted in April. The Dean believes this 17.6% reduction can be attributed to the growth in global markets in the past 6 months.

As The Dean and many in the financial world have been talking about for months, China is very much leading the pack on the path to economic recovery. The most recent WEO for Asia is growth of 2.8% for this year and 5.8% in 2010, which is much greater than most regions in the world.

Reports from Wednesday’s market activity in the Asian markets showed both stock markets and oil prices extending advances from the rally on Tuesday, while European markets have remained pretty much unchanged. The Dean believes this is due to the European Central Bank keeping interest rates at a record low of 1% and cautions against “high hopes” for a quick economic recovery.

The Dean believes today’s market activity in the United States will follow Asian trends of investing in riskier assets like stocks and commodities and futures for the Dow point to a 0.3% gain for today. Nevertheless, a survey which polled financial executives in the United States revealed that even despite 3rd quarter gains, “the US economy remains in recession.”

The Dean feels this information is significant because the executives also claimed that hiring and capital spending would remain down for the next 6 months. Only 11% of the CFOs and treasurers polled from this group of companies with annual revenues of $500 million believe the United States economy is out of the recession.

Taking all of these items into perspective, The Dean believes investors are still more likely to play in speculative markets than parking their money in blue chip stocks.

Students have until October 10th to become eligible for The Dean’s first ever Scholarship Fund contest. To be eligible, you MUST be an Honors Student. With The Dean giving away $5,000 to one top-performing Honors Students every quarter, $9.87/month to register for Honors Class is the ONLY way to get to the head of the class.

Happy Trading, The Dean



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